Table of Contents

Introduction: The Journey of Tata Motors and Its Market Position

Tata Motors Share Price a proud member of the prestigious Tata Group, stands as one of India’s most influential and respected automobile manufacturers. Established in 1945, the company began its journey as a manufacturer of locomotives before transitioning into commercial vehicles in 1954 through a collaboration with Daimler-Benz. Over the decades, Tata Motors has grown from being a domestic truck maker into a global automotive powerhouse, producing everything from passenger cars to heavy commercial vehicles and electric mobility solutions.

With operations in more than 125 countries and a workforce exceeding 80,000 employees, Tata Motors has successfully built a strong global footprint. The brand owns and operates several iconic sub-brands, including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which it acquired in 2008—an acquisition that transformed its global presence and elevated its technological capabilities.

Tata Motors’ consistent commitment to innovation, sustainability, and customer trust has made it a key player in shaping India’s automotive future. The company has been at the forefront of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution, with models like the Tata Nexon EV and Tata Tiago EV dominating the Indian market. This innovation-driven approach, combined with a strong focus on design, safety, and affordability, continues to redefine what Indian consumers expect from modern automobiles.

In recent years, Tata Motors share price has become a topic of immense interest among investors, reflecting both the company’s robust performance and the evolving dynamics of the auto sector. Despite facing occasional market volatility, Tata Motors remains a symbol of resilience and transformation. From pioneering the country’s first indigenously developed car—the Tata Indica—to leading the charge in sustainable mobility, the company’s journey showcases the spirit of Indian innovation and enterprise.

As the company moves ahead with its demerger strategy, separating the passenger and commercial vehicle businesses, investors and market watchers are keenly observing how this restructuring will redefine Tata Motors’ market position. The transition represents not just a corporate move, but a strategic evolution designed to create focused, high-growth entities ready to dominate their respective segments—both in India and abroad.

In essence, Tata Motors’ journey reflects a perfect blend of legacy, leadership, and long-term vision. The company’s strategic adaptability ensures it remains not only relevant but also a key driver of change in the rapidly transforming global automobile landscape.

Tata Motors Share Price Analysis 2025: Understanding the Fall, Demerger Impact, and Future Prospects

Tata Motors Share Price Overview (As of 2025)

At present, 2025 marks a period of transition and recalibration for Tata Motors share price, influenced largely by the unfolding demerger between its passenger-vehicle and commercial-vehicle businesses. Below is a detailed snapshot of how the share is positioned, key metrics to watch, and how the demerger is altering the valuation landscape.

1. Current Share Price & Valuation Metrics

According to Screener, Tata Motors is trading around ₹661 per share, with a 52-week high / low range approximately ₹935 / ₹536. Screener
The stock’s P/E ratio is near 11.2, reflecting moderate earnings relative to its share price. Screener
The market capitalization is cited as around ₹2,43,310 crore in recent reports. Screener
On Moneycontrol, recent broker research shows target and recommendation ranges around ₹690 to ₹750 depending on the analyst. Moneycontrol+1

These metrics indicate that even before factoring the structural changes, the stock was not aggressively valued. The market has been conservative, possibly pricing in risks such as JLR performance, global auto headwinds, and the uncertainties due to demerger.

2. Effect of Demerger on Share Behavior

One of the biggest inflection points in 2025 has been the demerger of Tata Motors into Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) and Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMLCV). The impact on the share price has been immediate and pronounced:

On October 14, 2025, the stock opened around ₹399, significantly lower than its prior close (≈ ₹660.90). This sharp drop (≈ 40%) was largely a technical adjustment reflecting the stock trading ex-demerger (i.e. without the commercial vehicle business). The Economic Times+1
Analysts from Nomura have apportioned post-demerger valuation fairly evenly: they assigned ₹367 for the PV business and ₹365 for the CV unit. Business Standard
The stock had already declined ~11% in 2025 prior to the demerger date, as investors anticipated structural changes. Moneycontrol+1

Thus, much of the apparent “fall” in Tata Motors share price around that date is a function of corporate restructuring—not necessarily deterioration in business fundamentals.

3. Recent Price Trends & Market Sentiment

In the week leading up to the demerger, the stock slid ~7% as investors grew cautious. The Economic Times
Over the longer time horizon in 2025, the share has been under pressure, partly due to global auto slowdown, JLR exposure, and competitive and regulatory challenges. The Economic Times+3Moneycontrol+3The Economic Times+3
Technical levels for the week of October 13–17, 2025, were projected with support around ₹657–₹636 and resistance near ₹709–₹740, pointing to a wide volatility band in the near term. Equitypandit

4. Where Investors Are Focused Now

Going forward, the Tata Motors share news that will influence valuation include:

Final listing price and trading behavior of TMLCV (commercial vehicles) and TMPV (passenger vehicles) as separate entities
Earnings performance of JLR (Jaguar Land Rover), which remains a major contributor in Tata’s consolidated picture
Growth in India’s EV adoption, especially in passenger and commercial segments
Global auto cycles—demand, input cost inflation, supply chains, trade policies

In sum, while the 2025 share price shows volatility and adjustments, much of the decline is structural rather than symptomatic of business failure. The reorganization offers a chance for sharper valuation clarity, and investors will keenly watch how each new listed entity performs in its domain.

Why Tata Motors Share Is Falling Today?

On October 14, 2025, Tata Motors shares opened around ₹399, down nearly 40 % from the previous close of ~₹660.90. India Today+2Hindustan Times+2
This steep decline is not due to a sudden company collapse or earnings shock. It is a technical adjustment caused by the stock now trading ex-demerger — i.e., without the value of its commercial vehicle (CV) business. mint+4India Today+4The Financial Express+4
With the demerger, Tata Motors has split into two business verticals:
• Passenger Vehicles + JLR (now under a renamed Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd)
• Commercial Vehicles (to be listed separately as TMLCV)
The existing stock now reflects only the PV + JLR segment, and shareholders will receive shares in the new CV entity on a 1:1 basis. INDmoney+3Hindustan Times+3mint+3
Thus, the “drop” mostly reflects the subtraction of the CV business value from the legacy Tata Motors share. In due course, when the CV business lists, shareholders’ total combined value (PV + CV) is expected to approximate the original valuation. INDmoney+3mint+3Moneycontrol+3

In simple terms: Tata Motors is not “losing value”; value is being redistributed across two separate entities. The market is merely pricing the newly configured shares.

2. Short-Term Volatility & Technical Risks

While the demerger is the primary trigger, several additional factors are amplifying the downside today:

Price Discovery Session & Pre-Open Adjustment
To facilitate the transition, the exchanges held a special pre-open session (9:00–10:00 am) to discover the “fair value” of the ex-CV stock. This process can cause abrupt swings. Hindustan Times+2mint+2
Uncertainty Over CV Listing Timeline
The listing date for the commercial vehicle arm (TMLCV) is not yet finalized, though expected within about 45–60 days. That interim window introduces uncertainty about when the separated value will be realized. INDmoney+3mint+3Moneycontrol+3
Analyst Caution & Near-Term Risk Warnings
Brokerages, including Nomura, have flagged potential near-term volatility and “technical risk” due to the demerger event. The Economic Times
JLR & External Headwinds
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which is part of the passenger / luxury segment retained by Tata Motors, has recently been impacted by a cyberattack causing shutdowns and volume loss. Reuters
Moreover, JLR is exposed to international trade dynamics, tariffs, and market demand shifts. These pressures may lead some investors to discount the PV + JLR business more aggressively in the short term.
General Sentiment & Booking of Profits
Ahead of a big structural event like a demerger, market participants often engage in profit-booking or repositioning, adding downward pressure to the stock.

3. My View: What to Watch Going Forward

Total Value Realization
Once TMLCV lists, the combined value (PV + CV) should more closely resemble the pre-split Tata Motors valuation, assuming both businesses perform as expected.
Relative Performance of PV & CV Units
If the PV + JLR segment outperforms or captures valuation multiples, or if the commercial vehicle side remains strong in India, stakeholders may see upside.
JLR Recovery Path
Restoring volumes, repairing disruptions, and navigating external headwinds will be crucial for confidence in the retained business.
Investor Communication & Execution
Transparent updates, timely listing of CV business, and seamless transition will help reduce uncertainty and bolster sentiment.

Tata Motors Demerger Details: What Investors Need to Know

What is Being Split

Tata Motors is demerging (i.e. separating) its Commercial Vehicles (CV) business from the rest of its operations. tataworld.com+2The Economic Times+2
The remaining business — including Passenger Vehicles (PV), Electric Vehicles (EV), and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) — will continue under what will be known as Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPVL). The Economic Times+2Business Standard+2
The new entity formed for the commercial segment will be called TML Commercial Vehicles Ltd (TMLCV). tataworld.com+2The Economic Times+2

Corporate Approval & Effective Dates

The scheme of arrangement for this demerger was approved by Tata Motors’ Board, shareholders, creditors, and relevant regulators including the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Mumbai Bench. The Economic Times+2The Economic Times+2
The demerger became effective from October 1, 2025. This is the date from which the split of business operations is formally in effect. mint+2The Economic Times+2
The appointed date (i.e. the date from which financials of each business are accounted separately) is July 1, 2025. mint+1

Share Entitlement Ratio & Record Date

The share swap ratio is fixed at 1:1. That means: for every share of Tata Motors held on the record date, the shareholder will receive one share of TMLCV (commercial vehicles entity). The Economic Times+2The Economic Times+2
The record date for shareholders (to determine who is eligible) has been set as October 14, 2025. Holders of Tata Motors shares on that date will get the matching TMLCV share. The Economic Times+3The Economic Times+3The Economic Times+3
There is also a record date for non-convertible debenture (NCD) holders, which is October 10, 2025, since some of those debentures will be transferred to the new CV entity. mint+1

Listing Timeline & Trading Details

The newly formed TMLCV (commercial vehicles company) is proposed to be listed on both BSE and NSE. The Economic Times+2The Economic Times+2
Listing is expected by early to mid-November 2025, around 30 days after the record date, subject to regulatory formalities and approvals. The Economic Times+2The Economic Times+2
After the demerger takes effect, Tata Motors share will trade ex the CV business, which explains the drop in share price seen on October 14, 2025. The Economic Times+2The Economic Times+2

Why This Structure & What It Means

Each business (CV vs PV+EV+JLR) has different operating dynamics, capital requirements, growth rates, and risk profiles. Splitting them allows better focus. Business Standard+1
Shareholders will hold identical ownership proportion in both entities post-split. They will not lose ownership; rather their holdings will be divided across the two entities. tataworld.com+2The Economic Times+2
The move aims to unlock value by enabling different valuation metrics for each business, clearer financials, more nimble strategy execution, possibly better capital allocation, and investor transparency. Business Standard+1

Key Risks & Things to Watch

The gap between record date and actual listing may lead to temporary illiquidity or uncertainty for the CV shares. The Economic Times+1
Valuation of each entity may diverge sharply depending on how the market perceives growth, profitability, international exposure (especially for JLR), and the EV transition. The Economic Times+1
Operational risk: managing two independent entities, ensuring smooth transfer of assets, liabilities, and maintaining continuity in supply chain, production, etc.

Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Share Price Outlook

The commercial vehicle (CV) segment has always been one of the most stable engines of growth and cash generation for Tata Motors. Post-demerger, TMLCV (Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles) is expected to stand on its own and draw direct market valuation. Below is a detailed outlook for its share price, growth prospects, risks, and key value drivers.

Current Market Context & Fundamentals

Before diving into forward projections, it’s important to understand the present base:

In Q1 FY26, the commercial vehicle business reported sales of 85,606 units, down ~6 % year-on-year. Domestic CV sales declined ~9 %, but international CV business grew ~67.9 %. Motoring Trends+1
In June 2025, domestic CV sales alone were 27,936 units, down 9 % YoY from 30,623 units in June 2024. ETAuto.com
However, the company has expressed optimism: it forecasts “strong single-digit growth” for its CV sector in FY26. scanx.trade+1
The demerger will list TMLCV as a separate entity—tentatively scheduled for November 2025—giving the market a distinct instrument to price just the CV business. ET Now+2mint+2
Nomura, one of the major brokerages, has apportioned almost equal value to both PV and CV arms and set a target of ₹365 per share for TMLCV in the post-demerger structure. Business Standard

Thus, the starting point for TMLCV will reflect both its recent performance and the expectation of recovery and future growth.

Key Value Drivers for TMLCV Share Price

Here are the levers that are likely to drive the valuation of TMLCV over the medium to long term:

Recovery in Domestic CV Demand
As infrastructure investment and industrial activity pick up, demand for trucks, buses, and logistics vehicles can strengthen. The commercial sector is sensitive to GDP growth, freight demand, public infrastructure spending, and replacement cycles.
Export and International Growth
The sharp growth in its international CV business in Q1 FY26 suggests that global markets could be a major upside contributor. Having a standalone CV listing gives investors direct access to this growth vector.
Operational Efficiency & Cost Control
A dedicated CV entity can optimize cost structures, supply chains, and capital expenditure specifically for trucks, buses, and commercial fleets — which may improve margins compared to when CV was bundled with passenger vehicle operations.
EV Commercial Vehicles / Green Fleets
With the push toward electrification, TMLCV might undertake electric truck and bus development, retrofits, or partnerships. This transition, if managed well, can draw premium valuations.
Scale & Brand Strength in CV Segments
Tata Motors already has significant share in multiple commercial categories in India. As a standalone CV business, it can leverage brand, customer relationships, and service networks more efficiently.
Capital Allocation & Focused Strategy
Freed from competing for resources with passenger vehicle and JLR divisions, TMLCV can prioritize investments, alliances, and technology relevant to commercial mobility.

Possible Risks & Headwinds

While the outlook has promise, several risks could pressure TMLCV’s share price:

Short-Term Volume Slump
The initial quarters post-demerger may still show weakness, as seen in recent YoY declines in domestic CV sales. Motoring Trends+1
Macros & Cyclicality
The CV business is cyclic in nature — sensitive to interest rates, fuel costs, freight cycles, and macro disruptions.
Competition & Pricing Pressure
As competition intensifies (especially from newer entrants or global imports in trucks), margin pressure might squeeze profitability.
Transition Risk in EV Adoption
The shift to electrified commercial vehicles is capital intensive and requires infrastructure (charging, battery supply, maintenance ecosystem). Mistiming or misallocation could be costly.
Valuation Reset & Market Sentiment
Market may initially underprice standalone CV business as part of fear and uncertainty. The “re-rating” would depend strongly on performance and clarity.
Dependency on Macro Drivers
Any slowdown in industrial growth, infrastructure projects, or freight demand can hurt sales.

Possible Share Price Trajectory & Scenarios

Given the above drivers and risks, here is a hypothetical outlook for TMLCV share price (post-listing) under different scenarios (for illustration):

Scenario	Time Horizon	Assumed Growth / Margin Improvement	Possible Share Target / Multiple
Base / Moderate Recovery	1–2 years	Single-digit growth, modest margin expansion	≈ ₹300–₹400
Optimistic Growth	3–5 years	Strong demand, export growth, EV transition success, market re-rating	₹500+
Conservative / Bear Case	1–2 years	Weak volumes, margin pressure, market underestimation	₹200–₹300

Given Nomura’s ₹365 target for TMLCV in the near term, a base case target might lie in that vicinity, with upside if growth surprises.

Final Thoughts: How to Position for TMLCV

Expect initial volatility in TMLCV stock as the market attempts to appropriately value the business standalone.
A good approach might be staggered entry: accumulate small positions and gradually increase exposure as clarity emerges from early quarter results.
Watch margin trends, export growth, and EV initiatives — these will be key in distinguishing winners.
Compare TMLCV’s valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E) with peers in commercial vehicle space once listed; that gives perspective on whether the market is undervaluing it.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited Share Price Forecast

Before projecting forward, it’s important to anchor where TMPVL begins:

After demerger, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (TMPVL) comprises the passenger vehicle business, electric vehicle operations, and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). mint+2Samco+2
On October 14, 2025, TMPVL opened for trading (post special pre-open session) at ₹400 per share (NSE) and ~₹399 (BSE) as the ex-CV business valuation. Moneycontrol+2Samco+2
Analysts have already begun estimating post-demerger value for TMPVL. For instance, Nomura has set a target of ₹367 for the PV entity. Business Standard
Meanwhile, SBI Securities expects TMPVL to trade in a band of ₹285 to ₹384 in the initial period, contingent heavily on JLR recovery and margins. The Economic Times
Also, Nuvama / broker commentary suggests a valuation for the passenger vehicle business (within TMPVL) of ~₹410 per share, broken down into segments: ~₹176 for India PV, ~₹188 for JLR, etc., after applying a holding company discount. Moneycontrol

Given this mix, TMPVL’s starting point is volatile and will depend heavily on how the market perceives JLR’s health, India PV demand, and clarity on financials.

Key Drivers That Will Shape TMPVL Price Trajectory

To forecast forward, we must identify what levers will push or pull TMPVL’s share value:

Driver	Positive Impact	Risk / Negative Impact
JLR Recovery & Profitability	JLR is a large component of TMPVL’s revenue and brand strength. A strong turnaround, stable margins, and global sales growth will attract premium multiples.	If JLR continues to face weak demand, production disruptions, or external headwinds (tariffs, regulatory, cyber risks), TMPVL may be discounted aggressively.
Domestic EV & PV Growth	India’s transition to EVs, government incentives, and strong uptake of Tata’s EV models (Nexon EV, Tiago EV, etc.) can underpin growth.	Intense competition, cost of batteries, supply constraints, and margin pressure may limit upside.
Margin Expansion & Cost Efficiency	With sharper focus post-demerger, TMPVL can optimize costs, reduce cross-subsidiary drag, and allocate capital more judiciously toward high-return segments.	Failure to improve margins, high R&D or capex burdens, or inefficiencies could weigh on investor confidence.
Brand & Product Strength	Tata’s existing presence, dealer network, customer trust, and product pipeline (SUVs, premium EVs) give it leverage.	If product quality, recall risk, or customer perception issues arise, they may erode brand premium.
Global Market & Currency Exposure	JLR gives TMPVL international exposure, which lets it benefit from favorable global demand and foreign exchange tailwinds.	Global auto cycles, weak developed market demand, foreign currency volatility, and regulatory risks can hurt.
Valuation Re-Rating Post Split	Markets often undervalue conglomerates and reward simpler structures. TMPVL might be re-rated higher once separation is settled and clarity emerges.	If the market remains skeptical or delays in listing/disclosure persist, re-rating may be muted.

Forecast Scenarios (Short-Term to Medium Term)

Below are illustrative price paths under varying scenarios. These are not precise predictions, but useful frames to understand potential upside and risks.

Scenario	Horizon	Assumption / Growth Logic	Approx Price Range for TMPVL
Base / Moderate Recovery	1 to 2 years	JLR gradually recovers, India PV & EV growth continues moderately, margins improve slightly	₹350 to ₹450
Optimistic Case	3 to 5 years	Strong global luxury demand, EV dominance, favorable policy tailwinds, margin expansion, positive re-rating	₹500 to ₹600+
Conservative / Bear Case	1 to 2 years	Weak global demand, JLR underperformance, margin pressure, structural skepticism	₹250 to ₹350

Potential Forecasts from Analysts

Nomura’s target for the PV entity (TMPVL) is ₹367 per share in its near-term view. Business Standard
SBI Securities pegs the trading band initially at ₹285 to ₹384, citing dependency on JLR’s recovery. The Economic Times
Broker / Nuvama commentary suggests a higher valuation, ~₹410 for TMPVL, though this implicitly assumes more optimism in business prospects. Moneycontrol

These give useful anchors—TMPVL is unlikely to skyrocket instantly, but might find perhaps ₹300–₹400 as a base band until more business performance clarity emerges.

Key Risks to Watch That Could Skew Forecasts

Delayed or weak listing of TMLCV (commercial arm), which may prolong uncertainty and dampen confidence in TMPVL’s standalone valuation.
Negative surprises from JLR (sales shortfall, cost overruns, regulatory or geopolitical risks).
Macro headwinds: global auto industry slowdown, inflation, interest rate hikes, currency fluctuations.
Execution failures: inability to manage the transition smoothly, capex overruns, supply chain disruptions.
Market sentiment: if markets adopt a “wait and watch” stance, TMPVL could remain range-bound rather than trending upward.

My Estimate / Guiding Forecast

Given all these considerations, a reasonable, balanced forecast for TMPVL over the next 2 to 3 years would be:

In 12 months: ₹330 – ₹420
In 24–36 months (if JLR recovers and EV momentum helps): ₹450 – ₹550

If all goes exceptionally well (global tailwinds, policy support, brand premium), TMPVL could breach ₹600+ in the 3–4 year horizon.

Tatamotors Split and Stock Structure Changes

The 2025 restructuring is not a stock split in the conventional sense (i.e. increasing the number of shares and reducing face value). Rather, it is a demerger / spin-off that divides Tata Motors into two separately listed companies, each focused on distinct businesses. mint+3ultimamarkets.com+3Tata Motors+3
After the demerger, the original Tata Motors listing will effectively become the Passenger Vehicles + JLR / EV business, while the Commercial Vehicles (CV) operations will be housed in a newly listed entity. The Financial Express+3Tata Motors+3mint+3

In essence: shareholders won’t “lose” shares or value (if all goes to plan). Instead, their holdings will be redistributed to reflect ownership in both new arms.

Key Structural Changes: Entities, Naming & Focus

Here’s how the corporate structure and naming evolve:

Segment / Business	New Entity	What It Will Include
Passenger / Electric / JLR	Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPVL / “new Tata Motors” in effect)	Passenger cars, EVs, Jaguar Land Rover, related investments. The Financial Express+5mint+5Tata Motors+5
Commercial Vehicles & Related Assets	TML Commercial Vehicles Ltd (TMLCV)	Trucks, buses, CV business assets, liabilities, related NCDs as per scheme. Lares Algotech+4mint+4ET Now+4

Some additional naming details:

The Commercial Vehicles unit (TMLCV) is proposed to be renamed “Tata Motors Limited” in due course after the restructuring. This means the “Tata Motors” brand name may transfer to the CV entity, while the PV / JLR arm retains a variant of the Tata Motors name (TMPVL). www.ndtv.com+4The Economic Times+4mint+4
Tata Motors has publicly stated that the share entitlement ratio (i.e. how many shares of the new company you get per share held) will be 1:1. That means for each share in the old Tata Motors, you receive one share in the new CV company (TMLCV). The Financial Express+6Tata Motors+6Angel One+6
The restructure was approved by Tata’s Board and later by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Mumbai Bench under the applicable scheme of arrangement sections (230-232 of Companies Act). Business Standard+3ET Now+3Tata Motors+3

Important Dates & Adjustment Mechanics

Understanding key dates and how shares adjust is critical for investors:

Event	Date / Timing	What Happens / Why It Matters
Effective Date of Demerger	October 1, 2025	From this date onwards, Tata Motors’ financials, assets, and liabilities begin to be accounted separately for PV & CV arms. ET Now+3ET Now+3Tata Motors+3
Record / Eligible Date	October 14, 2025	The company fixed this as the date to ascertain which shareholders will receive shares in the new CV entity. Angel One+4mint+4ET Now+4
Ex-Demerger / Trading Ex-CV Business	Same day as record date (October 14, 2025)	From this date, the legacy Tata Motors share trades ex the commercial vehicle business — meaning the CV business value is no longer embedded in its share price. Tata Motors+5ET Now+5mint+5
Credit Allotted Shares / Listing of CV Entity	Within ~30 days post Record Date (i.e. early November 2025)	New shares of TMLCV will be credited to shareholders’ demat accounts, and the CV entity is expected to begin listing (BSE / NSE), subject to regulatory approvals. The Financial Express+4mint+4The Economic Times+4

Mechanics & Adjustments:

On October 14, a special pre-open session (9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.) is expected to determine the opening price of the newly configured shares (ex-CV) based on price discovery. mint+1
The value of the “new Tata Motors (ex-CV)” is derived by deducting the implied value of CV business from the legacy closing price, which leads to the notional ~40% drop seen at market open on that day. mint+3The Economic Times+3The Economic Times+3
The face value of shares remains ₹2 for both existing and new shares. The Economic Times+5mint+5ET Now+5
The sharing of Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs): as part of restructuring, certain NCDs will be transferred from Tata Motors to the new CV company as per scheme terms. mint+4mint+4ET Now+4

How Your Shareholding Will Change (Post-Split)

From an investor’s point of view, your holdings will reconfigure but total share count doesn’t change (if you hold until record date):

Suppose you hold 100 shares of Tata Motors on October 14, 2025 (the record date).
You will continue to retain 100 shares in the “new Tata Motors / TMPVL” (the passenger + JLR + EV business).
In addition, you will be allotted 100 shares of the new CV entity (TMLCV) in your demat account.
Thus, post demerger, your portfolio will show two line items: TMPVL and TMLCV, each reflecting your ownership derived from original holdings. The Financial Express+4mint+4ET Now+4
The holding period (for taxation) of the new CV shares is typically considered from the original purchase date of the old Tata Motors shares — not from when the new shares are credited to your account. Upstox – Online Stock and Share Trading

Importantly, there is no dilution or loss in your relative ownership: the 1:1 entitlement ensures identical proportional equity in both companies. Angel One+4Tata Motors+4Business Standard+4

Why Tata Motors Chose This Structure & What Investors Should Watch

Why This Split Was Designed

Divergent Business Models: The commercial vehicles and passenger / luxury / EV segments have different capital intensity, growth trajectories, risk profiles, and market dynamics. Separating them allows sharper focus and allocation. Business Standard+2Tata Motors+2
Valuation Clarity & Re-rating Potential: As a conglomerate, the combined business faced a blended valuation multiple. Post-split, each business can be valued by its peers (CV businesses vs PV / EV / JLR). Tata Motors+4Business Standard+4Tata Motors+4
Capital & Strategy Independence: Each entity will have independent boards, financials, strategic priorities, and capital budgeting tailored to its line of business. Tata Motors+2mint+2

What Investors Must Monitor

Initial Volatility / Price Discovery: In the initial days/weeks after demerger, the new share prices may swing widely — markets are discovering fair value for both TMPVL and TMLCV. As Nomura cautions, there is technical risk ahead. The Economic Times+2The Economic Times+2
Timing of Listing for CV Entity: If the listing is delayed, there is the risk of uncertainty, illiquidity, or arbitrage gaps. mint+2ET Now+2
Performance of JLR & CV Demand: Since TMPVL will carry JLR, any headwinds to its performance (cyberattack, global auto cycles) will impact valuation. Meanwhile, TMLCV’s performance depends on recovery in domestic CV demand, exports, cost pressures, and EV adoption.
Execution Risk: Splitting assets, liabilities, inter-company contracts, NCD transfer, tax and regulatory compliance — all must be handled cleanly to avoid litigation, disputes, or business disruption.
Shareholder Communication & Transparency: Frequent, credible disclosures about asset transfers, debt allocation, business plans will be critical to maintain investor confidence.

Tata Motors Share Price Target 2025–2030

While the immediate focus is on the demerger, long-term investors are eyeing growth opportunities. Analysts estimate the following Tata Motors share price targets (based on current fundamentals and post-demerger clarity):

Year	Target Price Range	Key Drivers
2025	₹950 – ₹1,100	Demerger benefits, CV sales growth
2026	₹1,200 – ₹1,400	EV penetration and export momentum
2030	₹1,800 – ₹2,200	Global expansion, JLR synergy, strong cash flow

These projections depend on market conditions, policy support for EVs, and the successful listing of the new entities.

Tata Motors Share News and Market Sentiment

1. Nomura Flags Volatility in Post-Demerger Valuation

Nomura recently valued the passenger and commercial vehicle divisions of Tata Motors nearly equally, but warned of “technical risk for the share price” in the near term while the structural transition plays out. The Economic Times

2. Notional 40% Fall Explained by Demerger Adjustment

On October 14, 2025, Tata Motors shares opened at ~₹399, compared to ~₹660.90 the previous close — a ~40% drop. But many analysts are calling this a notional decline, as the stock started trading ex-demerger (i.e. without the commercial vehicle business) after the demerger’s effective date. Navbharat Times+2The Economic Times+2
The drop reflects the removal of the CV business from the parent entity’s valuation — not a sudden collapse in business fundamentals. The Times of India+3mint+3The Economic Times+3

3. Shares Sliding Ahead of the Split

In the week leading up to the demerger, Tata Motors shares declined ~7%, as investors grew cautious about the impending structural change. The Economic Times
The stock had also dropped about ~11% earlier in 2025 even before the split, as uncertainty mounted around JLR’s performance, global auto headwinds, and valuation concerns. The Economic Times+1

4. Impact of JLR Cyberattack & Operations Disruption

Jaguar Land Rover (part of the passenger / EV business) recently faced a cyberattack, forcing temporary production halts and disruptions in operations. This adds an extra layer of concern for investors evaluating the new passenger vehicle company’s risk profile. The Economic Times+2Reuters+2
The knock-on effect also affected suppliers and related firms: for example, Tata Elxsi, which works closely with the auto sector, reported a fourth straight quarterly profit fall, partly attributing it to the auto slowdown and disruption in JLR’s operations. Reuters+1

5. Group & Governance Issues: Tata Group Under Pressure

Tata Motors is part of the broader Tata Group, and in 2025 the group has faced turbulence in the market. According to reports, Tata companies like TCS and Tata Motors have fallen sharply from their peaks, wiping off significant market capitalization from the group as a whole. The Economic Times
These governance or boardroom concerns within the conglomerate have rattled investor confidence and may be adding a psychological discount to valuations across the group. The Economic Times+1

6. Product Performance & Market Responses

Tata Curvv SUV faced disappointing sales in September 2025 despite being a flagship model with advanced features (sunroof, ventilated seats, ADAS). The weak customer response to such a strategically important vehicle is being closely watched. Navbharat Times
In the broader Indian auto market, Tata Motors remained a major volume player; in September 2025, it sold ~59,667 units, ranking second in total sales. Navbharat Times

Market Sentiment: How Investors Are Thinking

Cautious Optimism with Structural Disruption

The dominant sentiment is one of cautious optimism—investors believe the demerger offers long-term value, but short-term volatility and execution risks are significant.

Many analysts see the split as an opportunity for valuation unlocking, giving each business (commercial vs passenger/EV) a clearer identity and comparable set of peers. The Economic Times+2The Times of India+2
However, the “price discovery” process is expected to be messy. Until earnings, cash flows, and margins become transparent for the two new entities (TMPVL and TMLCV), the market may pepper in cautious discounting. The Times of India+3The Economic Times+3The Economic Times+3
The drop in share price has alarmed retail investors, but many voices in financial media are emphasizing that the fall is mostly structural, not a loss of underlying business value. mint+2The Economic Times+2
Some brokers continue to issue “buy” or accumulation calls, especially for investors with medium to long-term horizons who believe in the upside potential of EV and CV businesses separately. The Economic Times

Key Sentiment Risks

If JLR fails to bounce back or continues facing disruption, the passenger/EV business (TMPVL) could be undervalued or penalized by markets.
Delays in listing the CV arm (TMLCV) or hiccups in asset / debt transfer could spook shareholders.
Global automobile cycles, input cost inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and regulatory uncertainty (especially for EV incentives) remain overhanging risks.
The shadow of Tata Group’s governance issues and capital allocation across the group could color valuation assumptions negatively.

Expert Opinion: Is It the Right Time to Buy Tata Motors Share?

Nomura
- Values the passenger vehicle (PV) and commercial vehicle (CV) arms of Tata Motors nearly equally after demerger. The Economic Times
- But issues caution: there may be near-term volatility and technical risk for the share price while the separation unfolds. The Economic Times
Jefferies
- Has an “Underperform” rating on Tata Motors post-demerger, with a price target around ₹570, which suggests ~15% downside from then-current levels (for the PV business side). NDTV Profit
- Concerns cited include emission regulation uncertainty and delays / questions over new model launches. NDTV Profit+1
Brokerages like Emkay / Nuvama / Motilal Oswal
- Mixed ratings. For example: Emkay sees upside via the Iveco acquisition for the CV business; Nuvama is more cautious. Business Standard
- Targets are widely divergent depending on assumptions about EV growth, JLR recovery, demerger execution. NDTV Profit+1
Moody’s
- Affirmed its Ba3 rating (which is speculative, with significant risk), but kept a positive outlook post-demerger. It sees the commercial vehicle side (CV business) as strong in terms of free cash flow generation and ability to service debt. Business Standard+1
Company Projections & Strategy
- Tata Motors is committing large investments: ₹35,000-₹33,000 crore for passenger vehicles over the next few years; product pipeline includes multiple new EV / ICE / software defined vehicles (SDVs). The Financial Express+1
- Targets are ambitious: e.g. 40% market share in CV segment by FY27, 16% in PVs, with EV business aiming for 30%+ penetration by FY30. Business Standard+2Tata Group+2

Pros: What Favors Buying Now

Here are the strong positive arguments supporting buying:

Demerger Unlocks Value: With PV and CV businesses separated, each gets a cleaner valuation. Investors can more clearly assess and pay for what they believe will grow faster. Civil-vehicle business is historically more stable; PV/EV+JLR business has higher growth potential if execution holds up.
EV Momentum & Strategy: Tata Motors is leading in Indian EVs, expanding product lineup, aiming for higher EV share, investing in charging infrastructure, alternative sourcing. If the EV trend accelerates, they could benefit disproportionately. Tata Group+1
Strong Position in CV Segment: Tata already has substantial share in commercial vehicles. With highway infrastructure, freight demand, rising logistics, etc., there is inherent tailwind. CV business is expected to generate stable cash flow.
Management & Strategic Moves: The company’s plans involving new models, cost convergence (EV vs ICE), SDVs, global exposure (e.g. via Iveco acquisition) suggest proactive strategy rather than reactive.
Post-Demerger Clarity & Independence: Once CV and PV arms are listed separately, investors can choose exposure specific to either business based on risk tolerance (e.g. if someone is bullish on EVs but wary of CV cyclicality, or vice versa).

Cons: Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Here are reasons to be cautious:

Near-Term Volatility is Very Likely: Many analysts expect wild swings in price until earnings, margins, product launches, and listing of the new entities provide clarity. Jefferies’ underperform rating reflects this. NDTV Profit
JLR Weakness & Disruptions: Jaguar Land Rover suffered recent volume drops due to cyberattacks, shutdowns, regulatory headwinds (import tariffs, etc.). A weak JLR performance can drag down the PV/EV business significantly. Reuters+1
High Investment Load & Margin Pressure: To achieve growth in EVs, new models, software platforms, charging infrastructure, etc., Tata is investing heavily. If cost overruns or weaker demand occur, profitability could suffer.
Regulatory Risks & Emission Norms: Changing government policies, stricter regulations globally could impose additional costs, especially for PV / luxury / imported vehicles. Also, delays in getting necessary approvals, plant expansions, etc.
Competition: The PV / EV space is heating up (from both domestic and international players). If rivals deliver better products, faster innovation, or better cost control, Tata may lose margin or market share.
Uncertainty Around Post-Demerger Execution: Things like debt allocation, asset transfer, supply chain split, brand / software ownership will matter. Any misstep might cause legal, financial, or operational drag.

My View: Is It the Right Time to Buy?

Putting together the positives and negatives, my view is as follows:

If you are a long-term investor (3-5 years+) and can tolerate volatility, then yes — now is a reasonable entry point. The share has already adjusted heavily due to demerger, creating a lower base. Much of the downside risk is visible and priced in.
If your focus is medium term (1-2 years), then it depends: you’ll need to keep a close watch on JLR recovery, margin improvement, the first few post-demerger earnings, and whether new product launches meet expectations. There is scope for upside, but risk is high.
If you are risk-averse, waiting for more clarity (e.g. one or two quarterly results post split, confirmation of CV and PV business performance) might reduce downside risk.
Also, diversifying exposure might help: instead of putting a large chunk into one stock, consider partial exposure. After the split, owning both CV and PV arms separately allows tailoring risk/reward.

Rough Price-Based Guide (What to Aim For)

If you decide to buy, some threshold-based thinking might help:

If share falls further (on technical or sentiment reasons) towards ₹550-₹600 (on the PV arm) that might present a stronger margin of safety, provided fundamentals look steady.
If the market gives positive signals (strong product pipeline, JLR stabilization, good margin trends), the upside could be quite meaningful—towards ₹700-₹800+ for the PV business, and perhaps similar or better for the CV business depending on the listing outcome.

Future Outlook: The Road Ahead for Tata Motors

1. Passenger Vehicles (TMPV):

Investment in Electric Vehicles (EVs): Tata Motors plans to invest between ₹33,000 crore and ₹35,000 crore by FY30, aiming to launch seven new models as part of 30 product actions. The company targets a 16% market share by FY27, including EVs, in the Indian passenger vehicle market, which is expected to reach 60 lakh units by 2030 The Times of India.
Product Development: The company is focusing on developing software-defined vehicles (SDVs) and enhancing connected services to stay competitive in the evolving automotive landscape LinkedIn.

2. Commercial Vehicles (TMLCV):

Integration of Iveco: The commercial vehicle segment is undergoing integration with Iveco, aiming to strengthen its global presence and product offerings Tata Motors.
Sustainability Goals: TMLCV is committed to decarbonization and improving fleet operators’ quality of life, aligning with broader sustainability objectives Tata Motors.

Investor Outlook and Market Sentiment

1. Post-Demerger Valuation:

Nomura’s Assessment: Following the demerger, Nomura has set a target price of ₹367 per share for TMPV and ₹365 per share for TMLCV, indicating a balanced valuation between the two entities Business Standard.
Analyst Consensus: The average share price target for Tata Motors Ltd. is ₹822.88, representing a potential upside of over 100% from the current levels Trendlyne.com.

2. Market Dynamics:

Short-Term Volatility: The stock experienced a significant drop of approximately 40% on October 14, 2025, primarily due to the demerger and broader market conditions INDmoney.
Analyst Caution: Experts like Dhananjay Sinha from Systematix Group advise caution, suggesting a more favorable outlook for companies like Hero MotoCorp and Maruti Suzuki in the current market environment

Conclusion: Navigating the Transition Confidently

The current dip in Tata Motors share price is a reflection of transformation — not trouble. The demerger, TMLCV listing, and strategic restructuring signify a new phase for the company. While volatility may persist in the short term, long-term investors could witness significant rewards as Tata Motors evolves into a more agile, future-focused enterprise.

Pros of Investing in Tata Motors

Demerger Unlocks Value:
- Separating Passenger Vehicles (PV) and Commercial Vehicles (CV) allows investors to value each business independently.
- Potential for re-rating as markets clearly differentiate high-growth EV/PV business from stable CV business.
Strong EV Push and Product Pipeline:
- Tata Motors is investing heavily in EVs (₹33,000–₹35,000 crore) and new product launches.
- Software-defined vehicles (SDVs) and connected services can differentiate its offerings and increase market share.
Commercial Vehicle Strength:
- Tata Motors has dominant market share in CVs in India.
- Stable cash flow and demand from infrastructure and logistics sectors.
Global Expansion & JLR Exposure:
- Jaguar Land Rover provides access to luxury and international markets.
- Potential upside if JLR recovers post-cyberattack and achieves efficiency improvements.
Clear Strategic Focus:
- Each entity now has independent boards, finances, and strategy.
- Improved allocation of capital and operational focus enhances long-term growth potential.
Valuation at Attractive Levels:
- Post-demerger share price adjustment creates potential buying opportunities for long-term investors.
- Analysts see medium- to long-term upside once earnings clarity emerges.

Cons / Risks of Investing in Tata Motors

Short-Term Volatility:
- Price fluctuations are likely in the immediate post-demerger period.
- Markets are still discovering fair value for both PV and CV arms.
JLR & PV Business Risks:
- Vulnerable to global auto cycles, supply chain disruptions, cyber threats, and regulatory changes.
- Weak performance in luxury / EV segments could depress PV valuations.
High Capital Expenditure:
- Massive investment in EVs and software platforms may strain margins if growth or adoption lags projections.
Execution Risk of Demerger:
- Smooth transfer of assets, liabilities, debt, and contracts is crucial.
- Any operational or regulatory missteps could impact investor confidence.
Competition:
- Domestic and international players in PV and EV segments are intensifying.
- Pressure on pricing, margins, and market share.
Governance & Market Sentiment:
- Tata Group’s boardroom or governance concerns can influence market perception.
- Investor sentiment could remain cautious until the split stabilizes.

Summary:

Pros: Strong EV pipeline, stable CV business, potential valuation unlock, strategic clarity, global exposure.
Cons: Near-term volatility, execution risks, capital-intensive growth, competition, JLR dependency, governance sentiment risks.

Investor Takeaway: Best suited for medium- to long-term investors willing to tolerate short-term swings, with a focus on EV growth and commercial vehicle stability.

FAQs About Tata Motors Share and Demerger

1. What is the current Tata Motors share price?

As of October 2025, Tata Motors shares (post-demerger) are trading around ₹399 for the parent company, with separate listings for Passenger Vehicles (TMPVL) and Commercial Vehicles (TMLCV) expected to stabilize prices further.

2. Why is Tata Motors share falling today?

The fall is largely due to the demerger adjustment, market volatility, and short-term uncertainty. Structural separation reduces the parent company’s value temporarily but does not reflect fundamental business weakness.

3. What is the Tata Motors demerger?

Tata Motors demerged its passenger vehicle business into Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (TMPVL) and retained the commercial vehicle business as Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMLCV). This aims to unlock value and give clarity to investors.

4. How will the demerger affect Tata Motors share price?

Short-term volatility is expected. Nomura and other analysts predict price stabilization once post-demerger earnings and asset allocation become clear. Each entity will have independent valuation metrics.

5. What is the listing date for TMLCV?

TMLCV is expected to list shortly after the demerger; exact dates depend on SEBI approvals and market readiness. The listing will provide a clearer market valuation for the commercial vehicle arm.

6. What is Tata Motors share price target?

Analyst consensus varies. Nomura estimates around ₹367 for TMPVL and ₹365 for TMLCV, while some brokerages suggest potential upside over 100% from current levels, depending on EV adoption and CV performance.

7. How are Tata Motors commercial vehicles performing?

Tata Motors holds a dominant position in India’s CV segment. Stable sales, infrastructure growth, and logistics demand provide reliable cash flows. CV share price is expected to benefit from independence post-demerger.

8. What about Tata Motors passenger vehicles and EVs?

TMPVL focuses on EVs and software-defined vehicles. Investment in EVs (~₹35,000 crore) aims to capture a growing EV market. JLR’s performance and new model success will influence long-term share performance.

9. Is it a good time to buy Tata Motors shares?

Long-term investors (3–5 years) may find it attractive due to post-demerger valuation correction, EV growth, and CV stability. Short-term traders should exercise caution due to volatility and price discovery risks.

10. What are the risks for Tata Motors investors?

Risks include short-term volatility, execution challenges post-demerger, JLR performance, heavy investment load, competition, and regulatory changes impacting EV and PV businesses.

Blog 2

Tata Motors Share Price Analysis 2025: Understanding the Fall, Demerger Impact, and Future Prospects